Sunday, October 02, 2005

Cuenta Cuántas Casas Cuentas

Por Marco A. López Silva.


Puede parecer increíble, pero en este país no sabemos cuántas casas se construyen. ¿Y las 530 mil viviendas que dice el Presidente Fox se construyeron el año pasado? En realidad, el Presidente se refiere a las viviendas nuevas VENDIDAS en 2004. No usa el dato correcto simplemente porque no existe.

Por qué es necesario saber cuántas casas se producen
Para ser eficientes, los mercados de bienes y servicios requieren de información completa y oportuna. La existencia de información sobre demanda y oferta permite a los productores asignar adecuadamente sus inversiones; facilita a los consumidores la elección de compra, y al final, resulta en una adecuada satisfacción de las necesidades sociales. Cuando no existe información completa y ampliamente accesible, los productores no pueden interpretar las señales que les da el mercado y toman decisiones inadecuadas.

Lo que existe y lo que no
Imagine que es un desarrollador de vivienda (potencial o establecido). ¿Qué necesitaría saber para tomar decisiones adecuadas – por ejemplo, qué tipo de casas construir y en dónde hacerlo? Por un lado, necesitaría saber cuál es la demanda que existe para distintos niveles de ingreso y para distintas localidades; por el otro, cuánta oferta existe ya o está en proceso de producción. Recordemos que el precio de un bien o servicio no está determinado por el costo de producción, SINO POR LA INTERACCIÓN ENTRE DEMANDA Y OFERTA: para un nivel determinado de demanda, un aumento en el volumen ofertado implicará una disminución en el precio de mercado, y viceversa.

En el caso de México, del lado de la demanda sí existe información razonable: el INEGI reporta los ingresos de la población por localidad; el INFONAVIT informa cuántos créditos tendrá disponibles por estado y programa específico, así como cuántos derechohabientes susceptibles de crédito tiene por segmento de ingresos y localidad. Otros determinantes de la demanda de corto plazo (factores macroeconómicos) también están disponibles públicamente.

Pero del lado de la oferta no hay gran cosa. Los desarrolladores de vivienda no concentran estos datos, pues algunos consideran que la información es parte de su ventaja competitiva (las compañías grandes sí tienen información adecuada de oferta, porque tienen recursos para pagar estudios de mercado que contienen dichos datos, pero el resto no). Los ayuntamientos saben cuántas licencias de construcción han emitido, pero por lo general no llevan registro electrónico y mucho menos por nivel de precios. El INFONAVIT sí sabe con alguna aproximación cuántas casas destinadas a su mercado están siendo construidas, pero ese dato no es muy útil: muchas casas se inscriben en paquetes INFONAVIT pero se venden con otros tipos de crédito. Y los gobiernos estatales no pueden llevar el registro si los actores privados no les facilitan la información.

Cuáles son las consecuencias
Supongamos que es un productor chico. Como no sabe cuál es el estado del mercado en su conjunto, lo típico es que confíe en información anecdótica: por ejemplo, observará que a tal desarrollador le está yendo aparentemente bien y que éste construye casas de tal precio, y decidirá hacer también este tipo de casas. ¿Y si ya hay oferta suficiente para el nivel de demanda? La decisión del productor chico terminará afectando a todos los demás (incluyendo a los grandes, que se sentían seguros): al aumentar la oferta en este segmento, los períodos de rotación de inventario y los costos aumentarán; todo mundo ganará menos y algunos saldrán perdiendo. Desde el punto de vista de la sociedad (y, claro, para los que pierden dinero) ésta es una asignación inadecuada de recursos: se podría haber invertido en otro tipo de casas o en otra localidad, y haber satisfecho mejor las necesidades de productores y consumidores.

Cuál es la solución
Es simple: registrar y publicar, por cada tipo de vivienda y localidad, cuánta es la oferta total y cuál es el período de rotación de inventarios (el tiempo que se tarda una casa en ser vendida, a partir de su terminación), sin identificar a los productores individuales. La observación de estos indicadores a lo largo del tiempo permitiría a cada actor conocer su ubicación en el mercado y tomar decisiones racionales. Eso es lo que se hace en los países desarrollados.
Precisamente para resolver este tipo de problemas de información, y muchos otros referentes a políticas públicas (en el sentido de policy, no de politics) ha nacido Fundación IDEA, una organización independiente y sin fines de lucro especializada en la materia. Siendo independiente, puede garantizar el manejo confidencial de los datos recolectados. Para mayor información, visite www.fundacionidea.org.mx o escríbame a marcoalopez@fundacionidea.org.mx



El autor es candidato a Maestro en Políticas Públicas por la Universidad de Harvard, Ingeniero Civil por el ITESM. Coordinador de Desarrollo Económico de Fundación IDEA. Comentarios:
marcoalopez@fundacionidea.org.mx

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